As GP would say, that’s a @*^!#!! of an analysis. And I don‘t disagree with the assertion MicroGates can pull it off. They’ve always been about quantity, not quality, so it’s just a matter of time before Apple gets competition in their little corner of the world.

I still give the edge to iGod because like SONY, he was smart enough to also focus on content, not just who has the better player.

But, I think Gates has a war on two fronts: Music and Apple, and gaming consoles and the EA Sports of the world. Both are about content though for Gates. He obviously focuses on the better player, not the content.

As you say, Apple is vulnerable. But I think vulnerable in another form of content: gaming titles. Gates might be willing to take a pass on the music front if he knew he could migrate as you say, the Zunes over from the iPods. I’d go one step further, and migrate the use of the player from music to that of gaming.

Most media people are focusing on the gaming platform as the next frontier in advertising, so I like my chances there.

Tech is improving so much, I can’t believe we’re still going to be using the current CD method of distributing games for much longer. Someone will shrink HALO 9 and put it on a Zune, (for free like your example), and watch out. Microsoft soars 12,000 points its first quarter while parents wait in line at Best Buy before Xbox-mas – again.

Back to the Pacific Theatre of Operations… The scenario of record labels having to fork over all their lunch money to Apple is interesting. I wonder how long iGod sewed up the rights to all those libraries though to affect that equation.

Another wildcard I’d throw out there concerns content as well, albeit from a different POV. We are just starting to see a generation of musicians emerge who are taking control of their own distribution, (Ani D, Prince, etc.), not to mention established artists discovering self-distribution all over again - for the first time.

Will this emerging group grow into a sizable enough one though that labels would no longer have control over, that’s the thing.

And, two years, five or even 10 years out, what will the landscape even be like then? The adage that computers drop in price by half and double in speed exponentially every two years might hold true for this new media-based mutli-tasking culture as well.

I heard MTV used to play music. Now, it’s a damn reality TV channel. In two years, will CGM madness reach teens who will become so focused on putting out their own Reality show? Yep. they’ll even do it via the school cafeteria internet connection.

In that scenario, music will be important, but not as much as facetime on TRL. Carson Daly’s already scouting out teens who’s only skill seem to be they got their rents to buy them a webcam and they can illegally download music without batting an eye.

And, will the market even support a full CD of songs anymore for ‘these kids’ today? When kids can download and mix and match their own CDs by going directly and cutting out the middle, does the label lose it’s power?. If they don’t get a piece of that they do.

Take the film industry. For years, independent filmmakers were at the mercy of Hollywood and it’s traditional distribution system to get things produced.

FADE TO: the music industry, who had a similar monopoly on all the equipment, producers and studio time for years. No more.

The Artic Monkeys can record something, edit it in garage band, convert to MP3s. Kids download at will and it takes off. Music peeps are left going, what just happened?

I’m sure the thought of missing out on the Next Big Thing scares the shit out of them.

Having said that, I think it will be a few years before you have bands good enough to produce and distribute strictly from their garages on par with today. Touring supports sales, and labels will still have control over venues (with Ticketmaster’s help), but not forever.

Ask kids how many concerts they go to compared to us.

Then ask them how many songs they download.